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4th April 2018 - Metals Focus' annual Gold Focus publication in Toronto Canada
Featuring presentation by Philip Klapwijk.
April 2018 - Chinese language edition of the Metals Focus' Gold Focus publication launch in Beijing and Shanghai
Presentation by Philip Klapwijk with Nikos Kavalis of Metals Focus.
February 2018 - LBMA The Alchemist Issue 88
Philip Klapwijk of PMI ranks at number 2 in the LBMA Top 15 Contributors - ‘Total Points Gained, 1998 to 2017
Contributor Total number of
contributions (b) 1st 2nd 3rd Total Points
1 Norman, Ross 64 5 4 5 28
2 Klapwijk, Philip 68 6 2 4 26
3 Hochreiter, Rene 52 6 2 1 23
February 2018 - LBMA 2018 Price Forecast - Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights
Average $1,381 High $1,440 Low $1,297
Gold prices are forecast to trend higher in 2018 based upon a generally positive economic and political backdrop for the metal. The US Federal Reserve and other major central banks will only gradually tighten monetary policy and therefore risk being “behind the curve” as inflation starts, at last, to rise a little more strongly than most expect. This will result in real interest rates remaining flat to negative in the major currencies, which should sustain investor interest in gold. Moreover, on the currency front, further, albeit moderate US dollar depreciation this year will boost US dollar gold prices. Gold should also benefit from some investors looking for an alternative parking place than cash to protect themselves against the increasingly overvalued US stock market and a bond market that looks as if it is entering a long-term bear phase. Finally, elevated political risk would seem to be an ongoing concern, especially with US foreign policy these days a disruptive rather than stabilising force in international relations.
Average $18.49 High $20.41 Low $16.72
Silver is expected to follow gold higher in 2018 but the ratio between the two metals, while narrowing somewhat, may well remain fairly elevated by the standards of previous bull markets for gold and silver. A large structural supply “surplus” in the silver market requires a high level of investment just to maintain prices. Besides the real hurdle this presents to higher prices there is also the impact this fact may have on investor behaviour. Thus, while some may still be tempted by silver’s traditionally higher volatility and theoretically greater scope for gains (than gold) other’s will be daunted by the metal’s rather weak underlying fundamentals. In addition, silver will generally not be considered by those mainstream funds seeking an alternative asset to hedge their exposure to stocks and bonds. Furthermore, it appears that the ‘bedrock’ demand from private investors in physical bars and coins in the US and Asia may be eroding after several good years. In short, while silver is expected enjoy a solid gain in 2018 a major re-setting of the trading range is considered unlikely.
Average $1,022 High $1,075 Low $896
Platinum continues to be weighed down by its lacklustre supply/demand fundamentals and this picture will not change for the better in 2018. An expected reduction in mine supply will only be marginal and probably more than offset by higher recycling. Perhaps more ominously, demand for the metal is set to drop further. The use of platinum in autocatalysts is vulnerable to what now looks like an accelerating slide in diesel-powered light vehicles’ market share in Europe. In addition, a further marginal decline is on the cards for platinum’s second largest end-use in jewellery, as some slippage in key market China looks probable. That said, given expected gains in the gold price this year it is difficult to see platinum being entirely left behind, although the spread between the two precious metals could well widen in 2018.
Average $1,091 High $1,204 Low $913
In 2018 palladium’s very favourable supply/demand fundamentals will continue to provide a sound basis for price gains. The forecast of only a limited pick-up in supply due to higher recycling and little change to overall fabrication demand would see another year of substantial “deficit” in the market. In recent years, falls in ETF holdings have at times played an important role in balancing the palladium market. Following the significant reduction in these bullion holdings, however, it is probable that in 2018 more metal will have to come from other, diversely held market stocks. Moreover, higher palladium prices will likely be required to mobilise this metal. Nevertheless, while the general direction of travel for the price should be upwards, this is almost certainly going to be accompanied by a high level of volatility. An important reason for expecting this is the scope for a major sell-off from the presently elevated level of long speculative positions in palladium. A potential trigger for this could be negative news on the demand front, such as a fall in US and/or Chinese car sales or, more generally, signs of a serious economic slowdown in either country.
To download LBMA 2018 Price Forecast in pdf click here
1st January 2018 - Philip Klapwijk Elected ICMI Director
Philip Klapwijk has been elected to the Board of Directors of the International Cyanide Management Institute (ICMI) effective January 1, 2018:
5th June 2017 - Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference in Singapore
To read the pdf of the presentation "Globalisation and the Gold Market: The Growing Interconnectivity of Trade and Trading" given by Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights Limited at the Singapore Bullion Market Association's inaugural Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference at the Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel, Singapore please click on this link:
Proposed gold trading initiatives would promote further interconnectivity in the global gold market:
• LBMA’s OTC trade repository and pricing project
• LME spot and futures trading; centralised clearing venture
• HKEX’s CNH and USD gold futures contracts
• CGSE’s Qianhai / Hong Kong corridor
• SGE partnership with DGCX to trade Shanghai gold futures
• SGX’s Shariah compliant futures contract
• Planned gold futures contract on the ASX
Globalisation and the Gold Market: Conclusions:
• Gold market globalisation is well advanced in terms of trade links, although there
are still important exceptions, e.g. (near) prohibition on gold exports from China
• While Switzerland/UK are still pivotal, other physical entrepôts have become
increasingly important and intra-regional trade, especially within Asia, is growing
• Domestic gold trading has become liberalised in most countries but currency and
capital controls still hinder cross border activity in several cases
• Scope for arbitrage exists where partial gold market liberalisation creates
opportunities based on local / international price or regulatory differences
• China’s market development a key factor for future trends in globalisation; much
depends on the Chinese leadership’s appetite for further capital account
liberalisation and the associated scope for internationalisation of the RMB
• London will remain the dominant OTC trading hub and Comex the principal gold
futures market for the foreseeable future but their market shares will be
Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference
Since Singapore lifted the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on Investment Precious Metals in 2012, the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) has been playing an active role in raising the profile of Asian bullion markets internationally. Over the next three years, the SBMA intends to play a greater role in the region by bringing together the bullion markets of the 10 ASEAN countries through the sharing of knowledge and best practices, liaison with governmental agencies and other relevant stakeholders in the region and beyond, and by connecting industry participants to global markets. The Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference (APPMC) is one such platform through which SBMA and International Enterprise (IE) Singapore will work towards developing and strengthening a unified body in Southeast Asia for the bullion market. SBMA and IE Singapore would like to welcome the entire bullion fraternity to attend the inaugural APPMC here in Singapore and for them to share their views, inputs and suggestions to enhance the region's role in the global bullion market.
27.04.2017 - Metals Focus Gold Focus 2017
Philip Klapwijk spoke at the annual Metals Focus Gold Focus 2017 publication presentation in Beiing China one of several simultaneous launch events for Metals Focus' annual "Gold Focus" publication, others taking place in London, Mumbai and Hong Kong. Metals Focus' annual Chinese language "Gold Focus" publication is produced with the support of the China Gold Association. At this event Philip Klapwijk gave a presentation on the annual yearbook's key findings and a forecast for supply, demand and prices in 2017.
30th March 2017 - Metals Focus Gold Focus 2017
Philip Klapwijk spoke at the annual Metals Focus Gold Focus 2017 publication presentation in Toronto Canada. Below is a link to see Philip Klapwijk's presentation:
16.01.2017 - LBMA 2017 Price Forecast - Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights
Click on this link to read the full price forecast for Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium for 2017.
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